14-Day Payback Gate

Approve only if cash is recovered in ≤ 14 days (includes collection delay).

Rule: Payback days + collection delay must be ≤ 14.
Payback days (earn back spend, before collection)
–
Cash receipt day = Payback days + collection delay
–
Freeze

Formula: Expected GP/day = (Sales14 × GM% × Confidence%) ÷ active days. Payback days = Spend ÷ GP/day.

Formulas

  1. Expected GP in 14 days
    expGP14 = Sales14 × (GM% ÷ 100) × (Confidence% ÷ 100)

  2. Active selling days (we only count days after the first sale starts)
    activeDays = max(1, 14 − DaysToFirstSale)

  3. Expected GP per day
    gpPerDay = expGP14 ÷ activeDays

  4. Payback days (days to earn back the spend, before collection)
    paybackDays = Spend ÷ gpPerDay

  5. Cash receipt day (earn back + how long customers take to pay)
    cashReceiptDay = paybackDays + CollectionDelay

  6. Decision
    If cashReceiptDay ≤ 14 → Approve.
    Else → Freeze.

Worked example with your numbers

(You must type numbers into the fields—placeholders don’t count.)

  • Spend = 1,200

  • Sales in 14 days = 5,000

  • GM% = 60 → 0.60

  • Confidence% = 70 → 0.70

  • Days to first sale = 5

  • Collection delay = 3 (card payout ~3 days)

Calculations:

  • expGP14 = 5,000 × 0.60 × 0.70 = 2,100

  • activeDays = 14 − 5 = 9

  • gpPerDay = 2,100 ÷ 9 ≈ 233.3

  • paybackDays = 1,200 ÷ 233.3 ≈ 5.1

  • cashReceiptDay = 5.1 + 3 ≈ 8.1 → Approve (≤ 14)

If you enter 14 for collection delay (invoicing), then cashReceiptDay ≈ 19.1 → Freeze.

Common gotchas

  • The light-grey numbers are placeholders. Click and type real values or the script treats them as 0.

  • “3 for card; 14 for invoice” is just a hint. Replace with a number (e.g., 3 or 14).

  • If Spend ≤ 0 or expGP14 ≤ 0, you’ll see “No expected margin within 14 days — freeze.”